Read More Atheist Republic Jordan’s Islamist opposition party made significant gains in the country’s parliamentary elections on September 10th, winning one-fifth of the parliament’s seats amidst increasing anger and tensions with Israel over the war in Gaza.
Islamists score big in Jordanian election held in shadow of Gaza war https://t.co/c8CGA2McSh
— The Times of Israel (@TimesofIsrael) September 12, 2024
The Islamic Action Front won 31 out of 138 seats in the Parliament of Jordan, hugely boosting its representation from five seats in the last elections held in 2020. The Islamist party, which has voiced its support for Hamas and its allies in its war against Israel, also benefited from existing reforms being pushed by Jordan’s King Abdullah to increase the political participation of parties in the country and democratize the Middle Eastern nation. Nevertheless, tribal and pro-government factions will continue to dominate the Parliament.
A political wing of the Muslim Brotherhood, the Islamic Action Front was established in 1992 and has taken a far-right Islamist, anti-Israel stance. The IAF supports violent action against Israelis and the State of Israel and has at times praised those who have killed Israeli soldiers and civilians, framing it as support for resistance against Israeli occupation. The IAF is also against LGBTQIA+ rights and has sought in the past to ban homosexual performers from coming to Jordan.
But despite concerns over the Islamic Action Front’s stance on Israel and its support for Hamas and its ideological allies, some experts believe that the IAF might not be able to do a lot to challenge the status quo in Jordan, at least not for now.
Muslim brotherhood getting most votes in Jordan this election cycle tells you all you need to know with the popularity of the status quo and activities of the Jordanian government past few years pic.twitter.com/9d8yBcSBBJ
— rm (@rmrm232323) September 13, 2024
Jordan is a constitutional monarchy, and while there are legislative elections, the country’s King Abdullah II holds almost all political power. The Parliament of Jordan has limited powers, and the king chooses the country’s Prime Minister and appoints members of the Senate and the Cabinet. The Parliament can also force a cabinet to resign through a no-confidence vote.
“We will certainly witness calls for a vote of no confidence and more questioning and calls for clarification,” Hassan Abu Haniya, a Jordanian researcher who is also an expert on local Islamist parties, has said, further suggesting that there’s not much they can do other than potentially cause trouble by using tools such as the right to summon ministers for questioning.
In addition, the Jordanian king can dissolve the Parliament, similar to what King Abdullah II did in 2016 after he appointed Hani Al-Mulki as Prime Minister. The other seats in Parliament went to representatives of major Jordanian tribes and minorities such as Chechens and Circassians. Other seats also went to centrists, former lawmakers, retired military officers, pro-government factions, and even left-wing parties.
This is how the Islamic Action Front party in Jordan celebrated after winning nearly half a million votes in the parliamentary elections pic.twitter.com/9pOHZCHB9k
— Khalidalmaktari (@Moonlight7oct) September 13, 2024
Conservative political parties and factions in parliament might also pose a challenge to the IAF’s victory, and they could outnumber the Islamist political party if they decide to act as one block, according to Ghaith al-Omari, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
Some experts also believe that the Jordanian king has bigger worries other than the Islamists winning the election, and might have even welcomed the results, as the presence of an Islamist movement in Parliament like the IAF could allow Jordanian society to “let off steam” and vent their frustration as the country, whose half of the population is of Palestinian descent, is becoming increasingly upset and angry over Israel’s military campaign in Gaza against Hamas, with over 40,000 Palestinians killed in Gaza as of September 8.
“I don’t think the king is worried by the election result,” Neil Quilliam, a research fellow and Middle East expert for the Chatham House, a British think tank, has said. “He is more concerned with Israel’s war on Hamas in Gaza, settler activity in the West Bank, and the inflammatory actions and comments from Israeli cabinet ministers. All of these pose a threat to the stability of the region and the wellbeing of Jordan.”
A matter of time until the king will be ousted. The Arab world is not ready for democracy as we understand it.
— Peter Nemschak (@PNemschak) September 18, 2024
A resource-poor country, Jordan has been hit particularly hard by the economic fallout of the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, which began following the deadly October 7 attacks that saw 1,200 Israelis killed and hundreds of Israelis and foreigners taken hostage. Tourism, one of Jordan’s main economic sectors, has plummeted, and unemployment, while officially 22% of the working population, is believed to be much higher.